2025

• S. Poloni, R. A. Kraenkel, and R. M. Coutinho. Biological invasions forming intraguild predation communities in homogeneous and heterogeneous landscapes. Theoretical Ecology, 2025. doi:https://doi.org/10.1007/s12080-024-00599-z.
  [abstract▼] [full text] [BibTeX▼]

  @article{poloni2024,
      author = "Poloni, S. and Kraenkel, R. A. and Coutinho, R. M.",
      title = "Biological invasions forming intraguild predation communities in homogeneous and heterogeneous landscapes",
      year = "2025",
      journal = "Theoretical Ecology",
      doi = "https://doi.org/10.1007/s12080-024-00599-z",
      volume = "18",
      number = "1",
      publisher = "Springer Science+Business Media"
  }
  

2024

• T. P. Portella, V. Sudbrack, R. M. Coutinho, P. I. Prado, and R. A. Kraenkel. Bayesian spatio-temporal modeling to assess the effect of land-use changes on the incidence of cutaneous leishmaniasis in the brazilian amazon. The Science of The Total Environment, 953:176064–176064, 2024. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.176064.
  [abstract▼] [full text] [BibTeX▼]

  @article{portella2024,
      author = "Portella, T. P. and Sudbrack, V. and Coutinho, R. M. and Prado, P. I. and Kraenkel, R. A.",
      title = "Bayesian spatio-temporal modeling to assess the effect of land-use changes on the incidence of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis in the Brazilian Amazon",
      year = "2024",
      journal = "The Science of The Total Environment",
      doi = "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.176064",
      volume = "953",
      pages = "176064--176064",
      publisher = "Elsevier BV"
  }
  

2022

• L. S. Ferreira, F. M. D. Marquitti, R. L. P. Silva, M. E. Borges, M. F. C. Gomes, O. G. Cruz, R. A. Kraenkel, R. M. Coutinho, P. I. Prado, and L. S. Bastos. Estimating the impact of implementation and timing of the covid-19 vaccination programme in brazil: a counterfactual analysis. The Lancet Regional Health - Americas, 17:100397–100397, 2022. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.lana.2022.100397.
  [abstract▼] [full text] [BibTeX▼]

  Vaccines developed between 2020 and 2021 against the SARS-CoV-2 virus were designed to diminish the severity and prevent deaths due to COVID-19. However, estimates of the effectiveness of vaccination campaigns in achieving these goals remain a methodological challenge. In this work, we developed a Bayesian statistical model to estimate the number of deaths and hospitalisations averted by vaccination of older adults (above 60 years old) in Brazil. We fit a linear model to predict the number of deaths and hospitalisations of older adults as a function of vaccination coverage in this group and casualties in younger adults. We used this model in a counterfactual analysis, simulating alternative scenarios without vaccination or with faster vaccination roll-out. We estimated the direct effects of COVID-19 vaccination by computing the difference between hypothetical and realised scenarios. We estimated that more than 165,000 individuals above 60 years of age were not hospitalised due to COVID-19 in the first seven months of the vaccination campaign. An additional contingent of 104,000 hospitalisations could have been averted if vaccination had started earlier. We also estimated that more than 58 thousand lives were saved by vaccinations in the period analysed for the same age group and that an additional 47 thousand lives could have been saved had the Brazilian government started the vaccination programme earlier. Our estimates provided a lower bound for vaccination impacts in Brazil, demonstrating the importance of preventing the suffering and loss of older Brazilian adults. Once vaccines were approved, an early vaccination roll-out could have saved many more lives, especially when facing a pandemic. The Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior–Brazil (Finance Code 001 to F.M.D.M. and L.S.F.), Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico – Brazil (grant number: 315854/2020-0 to M.E.B., 141698/2018-7 to R.L.P.d.S., 313055/2020-3 to P.I.P., 311832/2017-2 to R.A.K.), Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo – Brazil (contract number: 2016/01343-7 to R.A.K.), Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado do Rio de Janeiro – Brazil (grant number: E-26/201.277/2021 to L.S.B.) and Inova Fiocruz/Fundação Oswaldo Cruz – Brazil (grant number: 48401485034116) to L.S.B., O.G.C. and M.G.d.F.C. The funding agencies had no role in the conceptualization of the study.

  @article{ferreira2022,
      author = "Ferreira, L. S. and Marquitti, F. M. D. and Silva, R. L. P. and Borges, M. E. and Gomes, M. F. C. and Cruz, O. G. and Kraenkel, R. A. and Coutinho, R. M. and Prado, P. I. and Bastos, L. S.",
      title = "Estimating the impact of implementation and timing of the COVID-19 vaccination programme in Brazil: a counterfactual analysis",
      year = "2022",
      journal = "The Lancet Regional Health - Americas",
      doi = "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.lana.2022.100397",
      volume = "17",
      pages = "100397--100397",
      publisher = "Elsevier BV"
  }
  

• L. S. Ferreira, O. Canton, R. L. P. Silva, S. Poloni, V. Sudbrack, M. E. Borges, C. Franco, F. M. D. Marquitti, J. C. Moraes, M. A. S. M. Veras, R. A. Kraenkel, and R. M. Coutinho. Assessing the best time interval between doses in a two-dose vaccination regimen to reduce the number of deaths in an ongoing epidemic of sars-cov-2. PLoS Computational Biology, 18(3):e1009978–e1009978, 2022. doi:https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009978.
  [abstract▼] [full text] [BibTeX▼]

  The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic is a major concern all over the world and, as vaccines became available at the end of 2020, optimal vaccination strategies were subjected to intense investigation. Considering their critical role in reducing disease burden, the increasing demand outpacing production, and that most currently approved vaccines follow a two-dose regimen, the cost-effectiveness of delaying the second dose to increment the coverage of the population receiving the first dose is often debated. Finding the best solution is complex due to the trade-off between vaccinating more people with lower level of protection and guaranteeing higher protection to a fewer number of individuals. Here we present a novel extended age-structured SEIR mathematical model that includes a two-dose vaccination schedule with a between-doses delay modelled through delay differential equations and linear optimization of vaccination rates. By maintaining the minimum stock of vaccines under a given production rate, we evaluate the dose interval that minimizes the number of deaths. We found that the best strategy depends on an interplay between the vaccine production rate and the relative efficacy of the first dose. In the scenario of low first-dose efficacy, it is always better to vaccinate the second dose as soon as possible, while for high first-dose efficacy, the best strategy of time window depends on the production rate and also on second-dose efficacy provided by each type of vaccine. We also found that the rate of spread of the infection does not affect significantly the thresholds of the best window, but is an important factor in the absolute number of total deaths. These conclusions point to the need to carefully take into account both vaccine characteristics and roll-out speed to optimize the outcome of vaccination strategies.

  @article{ferreira2022b,
      author = "Ferreira, L. S. and Canton, O. and Silva, R. L. P. and Poloni, S. and Sudbrack, V. and Borges, M. E. and Franco, C. and Marquitti, F. M. D. and Moraes, J. C. and Veras, M. A. S. M. and Kraenkel, R. A. and Coutinho, R. M.",
      title = "Assessing the best time interval between doses in a two-dose vaccination regimen to reduce the number of deaths in an ongoing epidemic of SARS-CoV-2",
      year = "2022",
      journal = "PLoS Computational Biology",
      doi = "https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009978",
      volume = "18",
      number = "3",
      pages = "e1009978--e1009978",
      publisher = "Public Library of Science"
  }
  

• L. S. Ferreira, G. B. Almeida, M. E. Borges, L. M. Simon, S. Poloni, Â. M. Bagattini, M. Q. M. Rosa, J. A. F. Diniz‐Filho, R. S. Kuchenbecker, S. A. Camey, R. A. Kraenkel, R. M. Coutinho, and C. M. Toscano. Modelling optimal vaccination strategies against covid-19 in a context of gamma variant predominance in brazil. Vaccine, 40(46):6616–6624, 2022. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2022.09.082.
  [abstract▼] [full text] [BibTeX▼]

  @article{ferreira2022c,
      author = "Ferreira, L. S. and Almeida, G. B. and Borges, M. E. and Simon, L. M. and Poloni, S. and Bagattini, Â. M. and Rosa, M. Q. M. and Diniz‐Filho, J. A. F. and Kuchenbecker, R. S. and Camey, S. A. and Kraenkel, R. A. and Coutinho, R. M. and Toscano, C. M.",
      title = "Modelling optimal vaccination strategies against COVID-19 in a context of Gamma variant predominance in Brazil",
      year = "2022",
      journal = "Vaccine",
      doi = "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2022.09.082",
      volume = "40",
      number = "46",
      pages = "6616--6624",
      publisher = "Elsevier BV"
  }
  

• C. Franco, L. S. Ferreira, V. Sudbrack, M. E. Borges, S. Poloni, P. I. Prado, L. J. White, R. Águas, R. A. Kraenkel, and R. M. Coutinho. Percolation across households in mechanistic models of non-pharmaceutical interventions in sars-cov-2 disease dynamics. Epidemics, 39:100551–100551, 2022. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2022.100551.
  [abstract▼] [full text] [BibTeX▼]

  Since the emergence of the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), mathematical modelling has become an important tool for planning strategies to combat the pandemic by supporting decision-making and public policies, as well as allowing an assessment of the effect of different intervention scenarios. A proliferation of compartmental models were developed by the mathematical modelling community in order to understand and make predictions about the spread of COVID-19. While compartmental models are suitable for simulating large populations, the underlying assumption of a well-mixed population might be problematic when considering non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) which have a major impact on the connectivity between individuals in a population. Here we propose a modification to an extended age-structured SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered) framework, with dynamic transmission modelled using contact matrices for various settings in Brazil. By assuming that the mitigation strategies for COVID-19 affect the connections among different households, network percolation theory predicts that the connectivity among all households decreases drastically above a certain threshold of removed connections. We incorporated this emergent effect at population level by modulating home contact matrices through a percolation correction function, with the few additional parameters fitted to hospitalisation and mortality data from the city of São Paulo. Our model with percolation effects was better supported by the data than the same model without such effects. By allowing a more reliable assessment of the impact of NPIs, our improved model provides a better description of the epidemiological dynamics and, consequently, better policy recommendations.

  @article{franco2022,
      author = "Franco, C. and Ferreira, L. S. and Sudbrack, V. and Borges, M. E. and Poloni, S. and Prado, P. I. and White, L. J. and Águas, R. and Kraenkel, R. A. and Coutinho, R. M.",
      title = "Percolation across households in mechanistic models of non-pharmaceutical interventions in SARS-CoV-2 disease dynamics",
      year = "2022",
      journal = "Epidemics",
      doi = "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2022.100551",
      volume = "39",
      pages = "100551--100551",
      publisher = "Elsevier BV"
  }
  

• M. E. Borges, L. S. Ferreira, S. Poloni, Â. M. Bagattini, C. Franco, M. Q. M. Rosa, L. M. Simon, S. A. Camey, R. S. Kuchenbecker, P. I. Prado, J. A. F. Diniz‐Filho, R. A. Kraenkel, R. M. Coutinho, and C. M. Toscano. Modelling the impact of school reopening and contact tracing strategies on covid-19 dynamics in different epidemiologic settings in brazil. Global Epidemiology, 4:100094–100094, 2022. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloepi.2022.100094.
  [abstract▼] [full text] [BibTeX▼]

  We simulate the impact of school reopening during the COVID-19 pandemic in three major urban centers in Brazil to identify the epidemiological indicators and the best timing for the return of in-school activities and the effect of contact tracing as a mitigation measure. Our goal is to offer guidelines for evidence-based policymaking. We implement an extended SEIR model stratified by age and considering contact networks in different settings – school, home, work, and community, in which the infection transmission rate is affected by various intervention measures. After fitting epidemiological and demographic data, we simulate scenarios with increasing school transmission due to school reopening, and also estimate the number of hospitalization and deaths averted by the implementation of contact tracing. Reopening schools results in a non-linear increase in reported COVID-19 cases and deaths, which is highly dependent on infection and disease incidence at the time of reopening. When contact tracing and quarantining are restricted to school and home settings, a large number of daily tests is required to produce significant effects in reducing the total number of hospitalizations and deaths. Policymakers should carefully consider the epidemiological context and timing regarding the implementation of school closure and return of in-person school activities. While contact tracing strategies prevent new infections within school environments, they alone are not sufficient to avoid significant impacts on community transmission.

  @article{borges2022,
      author = "Borges, M. E. and Ferreira, L. S. and Poloni, S. and Bagattini, Â. M. and Franco, C. and Rosa, M. Q. M. and Simon, L. M. and Camey, S. A. and Kuchenbecker, R. S. and Prado, P. I. and Diniz‐Filho, J. A. F. and Kraenkel, R. A. and Coutinho, R. M. and Toscano, C. M.",
      title = "Modelling the impact of school reopening and contact tracing strategies on Covid-19 dynamics in different epidemiologic settings in Brazil",
      year = "2022",
      journal = "Global Epidemiology",
      doi = "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloepi.2022.100094",
      volume = "4",
      pages = "100094--100094",
      publisher = "Elsevier BV"
  }
  

• G. C. Müller, L. S. Ferreira, F. E. M. Campos, M. E. Borges, G. B. Almeida, S. Poloni, L. M. Simon, Â. M. Bagattini, M. Quarti, J. A. F. Diniz‐Filho, R. A. Kraenkel, R. M. Coutinho, S. A. Camey, R. S. Kuchenbecker, and C. M. Toscano. Modeling the impact of child vaccination (5–11 y) on overall covid-19 related hospitalizations and mortality in a context of omicron variant predominance and different vaccination coverage paces in brazil. The Lancet Regional Health - Americas, 17:100396–100396, 2022. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.lana.2022.100396.
  [abstract▼] [full text] [BibTeX▼]

  Developing countries have experienced significant COVID-19 disease burden. With the emergence of new variants, particularly omicron, the disease burden in children has increased. When the first COVID-19 vaccine was approved for use in children aged 5-11 years of age, very few countries recommended vaccination due to limited risk-benefit evidence for vaccination of this population. In Brazil, ranking second in the global COVID-19 death toll, the childhood COVID-19 disease burden increased significantly in early 2022. This prompted a risk-benefit assessment of the introduction and scaling-up of COVID-19 vaccination of children.

  @article{müller2022,
      author = "Müller, G. C. and Ferreira, L. S. and Campos, F. E. M. and Borges, M. E. and Almeida, G. B. and Poloni, S. and Simon, L. M. and Bagattini, Â. M. and Quarti, M. and Diniz‐Filho, J. A. F. and Kraenkel, R. A. and Coutinho, R. M. and Camey, S. A. and Kuchenbecker, R. S. and Toscano, C. M.",
      title = "Modeling the impact of child vaccination (5–11 y) on overall COVID-19 related hospitalizations and mortality in a context of omicron variant predominance and different vaccination coverage paces in Brazil",
      year = "2022",
      journal = "The Lancet Regional Health - Americas",
      doi = "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.lana.2022.100396",
      volume = "17",
      pages = "100396--100396",
      publisher = "Elsevier BV"
  }
  

• Â. M. Bagattini, M. Q. M. Rosa, L. M. Simon, G. B. Almeida, L. S. Ferreira, M. E. Borges, R. A. Kraenkel, R. M. Coutinho, J. A. F. Diniz‐Filho, S. A. Camey, R. S. Kuchenbecker, and C. M. Toscano. Pp25 brazilian collaborative network for covid-19 modeling: successful experience of using real-time science to support evidence-based decision-making. International Journal of Technology Assessment in Health Care, 38(S1):S48–S49, 2022. doi:https://doi.org/10.1017/s0266462322001702.
  [abstract▼] [full text] [BibTeX▼]

  Introduction Modeling is important for guiding policy during epidemics. The objective of this work was to describe the experience of structuring a multidisciplinary collaborative network in Brazil for modeling coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) to support decision-making throughout the pandemic. Methods Responding to a national call in June 2020 for proposals on COVID-19 mitigation projects, we established a team of investigators from public universities located in various regions throughout Brazil. The team’s main objective was to model severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 transmission dynamics in various demographic and epidemiologic settings in Brazil using different types of models and mitigation interventions. The modeling results aimed to provide information to support policy making. This descriptive study outlines the processes, products, challenges, and lessons learned from this innovative experience. Results The network included 18 researchers (epidemiologists, infectious diseases experts, statisticians, and modelers) from various backgrounds, including ecology, geography, physics, and mathematics. The criteria for joining the network were having a communication channel with public health decision-makers and being involved in generating evidence for public policy. During a 24-month period, the following sub-projects were established: (i) development of a susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered-like, individual-based meta-population and Markov chain model; (ii) projection of COVID-19 transmission and impact over time with respect to cases, hospitalizations, and deaths; (iii) assessment of the impact of non-pharmacological interventions for COVID-19; (iv) evaluation of the impact of reopening schools; and (v) determining optimal strategies for COVID-19 vaccination. In addition, we mapped existing COVID-19 modeling groups nationwide and conducted a systematic review of relevant published research literature from Brazil. Conclusions Infectious disease modeling for guiding public health policy requires interaction between epidemiologists, public health specialists, and modelers. Communicating modeling results in a non-academic format is an additional challenge, so close interaction with policy makers is essential to ensure that the information is useful. Establishing a network of modeling groups will be useful for future disease outbreaks.

  @article{bagattini2022,
      author = "Bagattini, Â. M. and Rosa, M. Q. M. and Simon, L. M. and Almeida, G. B. and Ferreira, L. S. and Borges, M. E. and Kraenkel, R. A. and Coutinho, R. M. and Diniz‐Filho, J. A. F. and Camey, S. A. and Kuchenbecker, R. S. and Toscano, C. M.",
      title = "PP25 Brazilian Collaborative Network For COVID-19 Modeling: Successful Experience Of Using Real-Time Science To Support Evidence-Based Decision-Making",
      year = "2022",
      journal = "International Journal of Technology Assessment in Health Care",
      doi = "https://doi.org/10.1017/s0266462322001702",
      volume = "38",
      number = "S1",
      pages = "S48--S49",
      publisher = "Cambridge University Press"
  }
  

2021

• R. M. Coutinho, F. M. D. Marquitti, L. S. Ferreira, M. E. Borges, R. L. P. Silva, O. Canton, T. P. Portella, S. Poloni, C. Franco, M. M. Pluciński, F. C. Lessa, A. A. M. Silva, R. A. Kraenkel, M. A. S. M. Veras, and P. I. Prado. Model-based estimation of transmissibility and reinfection of sars-cov-2 p.1 variant. Communications Medicine, 2021. doi:https://doi.org/10.1038/s43856-021-00048-6.
  [abstract▼] [full text] [BibTeX▼]

  The SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern (VOC) P.1 (Gamma variant) emerged in the Amazonas State, Brazil, in November 2020. The epidemiological consequences of its mutations have not been widely studied, despite detection of P.1 in 36 countries, with local transmission in at least 5 countries. A range of mutations are seen in P.1, ten of them in the spike protein. It shares mutations with VOCs previously detected in the United Kingdom (B.1.1.7, Alpha variant) and South Africa (B.1.351, Beta variant).

  @article{coutinho2021,
      author = "Coutinho, R. M. and Marquitti, F. M. D. and Ferreira, L. S. and Borges, M. E. and Silva, R. L. P. and Canton, O. and Portella, T. P. and Poloni, S. and Franco, C. and Pluciński, M. M. and Lessa, F. C. and Silva, A. A. M. and Kraenkel, R. A. and Veras, M. A. S. M. and Prado, P. I.",
      title = "Model-based estimation of transmissibility and reinfection of SARS-CoV-2 P.1 variant",
      year = "2021",
      journal = "Communications Medicine",
      doi = "https://doi.org/10.1038/s43856-021-00048-6",
      volume = "1",
      number = "1",
      publisher = "Nature Portfolio"
  }
  

• F. M. D. Marquitti, R. M. Coutinho, L. S. Ferreira, M. E. Borges, T. P. Portella, R. L. P. Silva, O. Canton, S. Poloni, C. Franco, V. Coelho, L. Barberia, M. Bolle, A. C. Boing, M. R. Donalísio, A. F. Boing, A. A. M. Silva, P. I. Prado, M. A. S. M. Veras, and R. A. Kraenkel. Brazil in the face of new sars-cov-2 variants: emergencies and challenges in public health. Revista Brasileira de Epidemiologia, 2021. doi:https://doi.org/10.1590/1980-549720210022.
  [abstract▼] [full text] [BibTeX▼]

  ABSTRACT: This article discusses the epidemic situation of Covid-19 in Brazil, in the face of the emergence of a new strain called P.1, which is more transmissible and may be associated with reinfection. Given the collapse of hospital care in Manaus in January 2021 and the results of three recent preprints, each that reports increased transmissibility of the P.1 variant, we propose some urgent measures. Genomic surveillance based on multi-step diagnostics, starting with RT-PCR type tests and up to sequencing, should be established. Efforts to identify reinfections associated with this variant and the update of its definition in protocols should be prioritized, and studies on the efficacy of currently available vaccines in Brazil concerning the new variant should be conducted. We also propose improving the Brazilian health surveillance system such that genomic surveillance is coordinated and thereby better able to respond to future emergencies in a more timely fashion. We call on the public agents involved in health surveillance to share data and information regarding the epidemic in a clear, fast and transparent way. Finally, we propose a greater engagement in inter-institutional cooperation of all those involved in the response and production of knowledge about the pandemic in our country.

  @article{marquitti2021,
      author = "Marquitti, F. M. D. and Coutinho, R. M. and Ferreira, L. S. and Borges, M. E. and Portella, T. P. and Silva, R. L. P. and Canton, O. and Poloni, S. and Franco, C. and Coelho, V. and Barberia, L. and Bolle, M. and Boing, A. C. and Donalísio, M. R. and Boing, A. F. and Silva, A. A. M. and Prado, P. I. and Veras, M. A. S. M. and Kraenkel, R. A.",
      title = "Brazil in the face of new SARS-CoV-2 variants: emergencies and challenges in public health",
      year = "2021",
      journal = "Revista Brasileira de Epidemiologia",
      doi = "https://doi.org/10.1590/1980-549720210022",
      volume = "24",
      publisher = "Associação Brasileira de Saúde Coletiva"
  }
  

• A. R. Medeiros‐Sousa, G. Z. Laporta, R. M. Coutinho, L. F. Mucci, and M. T. Marrelli. A mathematical model for zoonotic transmission of malaria in the atlantic forest: exploring the effects of variations in vector abundance and acrodendrophily. PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 15(2):e0008736–e0008736, 2021. doi:https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0008736.
  [abstract▼] [full text] [BibTeX▼]

  Transmission foci of autochthonous malaria caused by Plasmodium vivax -like parasites have frequently been reported in the Atlantic Forest in Southeastern and Southern Brazil. Evidence suggests that malaria is a zoonosis in these areas as human infections by simian Plasmodium species have been detected, and the main vector of malaria in the Atlantic Forest, Anopheles ( Kerteszia ) cruzii , can blood feed on human and simian hosts. In view of the lack of models that seek to predict the dynamics of zoonotic transmission in this part of the Atlantic Forest, the present study proposes a new deterministic mathematical model that includes a transmission compartment for non-human primates and parameters that take into account vector displacement between the upper and lower forest strata. The effects of variations in the abundance and acrodendrophily of An . cruzii on the prevalence of infected humans in the study area and the basic reproduction number (R 0 ) for malaria were analyzed. The model parameters are based on the literature and fitting of the empirical data. Simulations performed with the model indicate that (1) an increase in the abundance of the vector in relation to the total number of blood-seeking mosquitoes leads to an asymptotic increase in both the proportion of infected individuals at steady state and R 0 ; (2) the proportion of infected humans at steady state is higher when displacement of the vector mosquito between the forest strata increases; and (3) in most scenarios, Plasmodium transmission cannot be sustained only between mosquitoes and humans, which implies that non-human primates play an important role in maintaining the transmission cycle. The proposed model contributes to a better understanding of the dynamics of malaria transmission in the Atlantic Forest.

  @article{medeiros‐sousa2021,
      author = "Medeiros‐Sousa, A. R. and Laporta, G. Z. and Coutinho, R. M. and Mucci, L. F. and Marrelli, M. T.",
      title = "A mathematical model for zoonotic transmission of malaria in the Atlantic Forest: Exploring the effects of variations in vector abundance and acrodendrophily",
      year = "2021",
      journal = "PLoS neglected tropical diseases",
      doi = "https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0008736",
      volume = "15",
      number = "2",
      pages = "e0008736--e0008736",
      publisher = "Public Library of Science"
  }
  

2020

• R. Águas, L. J. White, N. Hupert, R. Shretta, W. Pan‐ngum, O. Celhay, A. Moldokmatova, F. Arifi, A. Mirzazadeh, H. Sharifi, K. Adib, M. N. Sahak, C. Franco, and R. M. Coutinho. Modelling the covid-19 pandemic in context: an international participatory approach. BMJ Global Health, 5(12):e003126–e003126, 2020. doi:https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjgh-2020-003126.
  [abstract▼] [full text] [BibTeX▼]

  The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has had an unprecedented impact on multiple levels of society. Not only has the pandemic completely overwhelmed some health systems but it has also changed how scientific evidence is shared and increased the pace at which such evidence is published and consumed, by scientists, policymakers and the wider public. More significantly, the pandemic has created tremendous challenges for decision-makers, who have had to implement highly disruptive containment measures with very little empirical scientific evidence to support their decision-making process. Given this lack of data, predictive mathematical models have played an increasingly prominent role. In high-income countries, there is a long-standing history of established research groups advising policymakers, whereas a general lack of translational capacity has meant that mathematical models frequently remain inaccessible to policymakers in low-income and middle-income countries. Here, we describe a participatory approach to modelling that aims to circumvent this gap. Our approach involved the creation of an international group of infectious disease modellers and other public health experts, which culminated in the establishment of the COVID-19 Modelling (CoMo) Consortium. Here, we describe how the consortium was formed, the way it functions, the mathematical model used and, crucially, the high degree of engagement fostered between CoMo Consortium members and their respective local policymakers and ministries of health.

  @article{águas2020,
      author = "Águas, R. and White, L. J. and Hupert, N. and Shretta, R. and Pan‐ngum, W. and Celhay, O. and Moldokmatova, A. and Arifi, F. and Mirzazadeh, A. and Sharifi, H. and Adib, K. and Sahak, M. N. and Franco, C. and Coutinho, R. M.",
      title = "Modelling the COVID-19 pandemic in context: an international participatory approach",
      year = "2020",
      journal = "BMJ Global Health",
      doi = "https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjgh-2020-003126",
      volume = "5",
      number = "12",
      pages = "e003126--e003126",
      publisher = "BMJ"
  }
  

• G. B. Almeida, M. Pronunciate, R. M. T. Grotto, E. A. Pugliesi, R. B. Guimarães, T. N. Vilches, R. M. Coutinho, R. C. Catão, C. P. Ferreira, and C. M. C. B. Fortaleza. Two hundred days of covid-19 in são paulo state, brazil. Epidemiology and Infection, 2020. doi:https://doi.org/10.1017/s0950268820002927.
  [abstract▼] [full text] [BibTeX▼]

  Abstract Two hundred days after the first confirmed case of COVID-19 in Brazil, the epidemic has rapidly spread in metropolitan areas and advanced throughout the countryside. We followed the temporal epidemic pattern at São Paulo State, the most populous of the country, the first to have a confirmed case of COVID-19, and the one with the most significant number of cases until now. We analysed the number of new cases per day in each regional health department and calculated the effective reproduction number ( R t ) over time. Social distance measures, along with improvement in testing and isolating positive cases, general population mask-wearing and standard health security protocols for essential and non-essential activities, were adopted and impacted on slowing down epidemic velocity but were insufficient to stop transmission.

  @article{almeida2020,
      author = "Almeida, G. B. and Pronunciate, M. and Grotto, R. M. T. and Pugliesi, E. A. and Guimarães, R. B. and Vilches, T. N. and Coutinho, R. M. and Catão, R. C. and Ferreira, C. P. and Fortaleza, C. M. C. B.",
      title = "Two hundred days of COVID-19 in São Paulo State, Brazil",
      year = "2020",
      journal = "Epidemiology and Infection",
      doi = "https://doi.org/10.1017/s0950268820002927",
      volume = "148",
      publisher = "Cambridge University Press"
  }
  

2019

• L. Schiesari, M. G. Matias, P. I. Prado, M. A. Leibold, C. H. Albert, J. G. Howeth, S. Leroux, R. Pardini, T. Siqueira, P. H. S. Brancalion, M. Cabeza, R. M. Coutinho, J. A. F. Diniz‐Filho, B. Fournier, D. J. G. Lahr, T. M. Lewinsohn, A. B. Martins, C. Morsello, P. R. Peres‐Neto, V. D. Pillar, and D. P. Vázquez. Towards an applied metaecology. Perspectives in Ecology and Conservation, 17(4):172–181, 2019. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pecon.2019.11.001.
  [abstract▼] [full text] [BibTeX▼]

  The complexity of ecological systems is a major challenge for practitioners and decision-makers who work to avoid, mitigate and manage environmental change. Here, we illustrate how metaecology – the study of spatial interdependencies among ecological systems through fluxes of organisms, energy, and matter – can enhance understanding and improve managing environmental change at multiple spatial scales. We present several case studies illustrating how the framework has leveraged decision-making in conservation, restoration and risk management. Nevertheless, an explicit incorporation of metaecology is still uncommon in the applied ecology literature, and in action guidelines addressing environmental change. This is unfortunate because the many facets of environmental change can be framed as modifying spatial context, connectedness and dominant regulating processes - the defining features of metaecological systems. Narrowing the gap between theory and practice will require incorporating system-specific realism in otherwise predominantly conceptual studies, as well as deliberately studying scenarios of environmental change.

  @article{schiesari2019,
      author = "Schiesari, L. and Matias, M. G. and Prado, P. I. and Leibold, M. A. and Albert, C. H. and Howeth, J. G. and Leroux, S. and Pardini, R. and Siqueira, T. and Brancalion, P. H. S. and Cabeza, M. and Coutinho, R. M. and Diniz‐Filho, J. A. F. and Fournier, B. and Lahr, D. J. G. and Lewinsohn, T. M. and Martins, A. B. and Morsello, C. and Peres‐Neto, P. R. and Pillar, V. D. and Vázquez, D. P.",
      title = "Towards an applied metaecology",
      year = "2019",
      journal = "Perspectives in Ecology and Conservation",
      doi = "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pecon.2019.11.001",
      volume = "17",
      number = "4",
      pages = "172--181",
      publisher = "Elsevier BV"
  }
  

• K. Laneri, B. Cabella, P. I. Prado, R. M. Coutinho, and R. A. Kraenkel. Climate drivers of malaria at its southern fringe in the americas. PLoS ONE, 14(7):e0219249–e0219249, 2019. doi:https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0219249.
  [abstract▼] [full text] [BibTeX▼]

  In this work we analyze potential environmental drivers of malaria cases in Northwestern Argentina. We inspect causal links between malaria and climatic variables by means of the convergent cross mapping technique, which provides a causality criterion from the theory of dynamic systems. Analysis is based on 12 years of weekly malaria P. vivax cases in Tartagal, Salta, Argentina—at the southern fringe of malaria incidence in the Americas—together with humidity and temperature time-series spanning the same period. Our results show that there are causal links between malaria cases and both maximum temperature, with a delay of five weeks, and minimum temperature, with delays of zero and twenty two weeks. Humidity is also a driver of malaria cases, with thirteen weeks delay between cause and effect. Furthermore we also determined the sign and strength of the effects. Temperature has always a positive non-linear effect on cases, with maximum temperature effects more pronounced above 25°C and minimum above 17°C, while effects of humidity are more intricate: maximum humidity above 85% has a negative effect, whereas minimum humidity has a positive effect on cases. These results might be signaling processes operating at short (below 5 weeks) and long (over 12 weeks) time delays, corresponding to effects related to parasite cycle and mosquito population dynamics respectively. The non-linearities found for the strength of the effect of temperature on malaria cases make warmer areas more prone to higher increases in the disease incidence. Moreover, our results indicate that an increase of extreme weather events could enhance the risks of malaria spreading and re-emergence beyond the current distribution. Both situations, warmer climate and increase of extreme events, will be remarkably increased by the end of the century in this hot spot of climate change.

  @article{laneri2019,
      author = "Laneri, K. and Cabella, B. and Prado, P. I. and Coutinho, R. M. and Kraenkel, R. A.",
      title = "Climate drivers of malaria at its southern fringe in the Americas",
      year = "2019",
      journal = "PLoS ONE",
      doi = "https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0219249",
      volume = "14",
      number = "7",
      pages = "e0219249--e0219249",
      publisher = "Public Library of Science"
  }
  

• G. M. Ribeiro, P. I. Prado, R. M. Coutinho, M. C. Rillo, S. C. A. Pereira, A. L. Porfírio‐Sousa, and D. J. G. Lahr. Growth rate modulation enables coexistence in a competitive exclusion scenario between microbial eukaryotes. Acta Protozoologica, 58(4):217–233, 2019. doi:https://doi.org/10.4467/16890027ap.19.019.12021.
  [abstract▼] [full text] [BibTeX▼]

  Coexistence usually are exceeding the explicable rate by competitive exclusion principle. Since the pioneer Gause, many studies have used protist microcosm systems to study competitive exclusion. We explored a two-species system with the testate-amoebae: (Arcella intermedia and Pyxidicula operculata), where competitive exclusion is expected to occur. We determined their growth curves individually and under competitive interaction. We used a state-space model to represent system dynamics and calculated posterior population sizes simulating competition dynamics. Contrarily to our expectation, Arcella and Pyxidicula showed similar growth rates (1.37 and 1.46 days–1 respectively) and only different carrying capacity (1,997 and 25,108 cells cm–2 respectively). The maximum number of cells of both species when growing in competition was much lower if compared to the monospecific cultures (in average, 73% and 80% less for Arcella and Pyxidicula respectively). However, our competition experiments always resulted in coexistence. According to the models, the drop in growth rates and stochasticity mainly explains our coexistence results. We propose that a context of ephemeral resources can explain these results. Additionally, we propose generating factors of stochasticity as intraspecific variation, small population effects, toxicity of waste products and influence of the bacterial community.

  @article{ribeiro2019,
      author = "Ribeiro, G. M. and Prado, P. I. and Coutinho, R. M. and Rillo, M. C. and Pereira, S. C. A. and Porfírio‐Sousa, A. L. and Lahr, D. J. G.",
      title = "Growth Rate Modulation Enables Coexistence in a Competitive Exclusion Scenario Between Microbial Eukaryotes",
      year = "2019",
      journal = "Acta Protozoologica",
      doi = "https://doi.org/10.4467/16890027ap.19.019.12021",
      volume = "58",
      number = "4",
      pages = "217--233",
      publisher = "Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Jagiellońskiego"
  }
  

2018

• T. Klauschies, R. M. Coutinho, and U. Gaedke. A beta distribution-based moment closure enhances the reliability of trait-based aggregate models for natural populations and communities. Ecological Modelling, 381:46–77, 2018. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2018.02.001.
  [abstract▼] [full text] [BibTeX▼]

  @article{klauschies2018,
      author = "Klauschies, T. and Coutinho, R. M. and Gaedke, U.",
      title = "A beta distribution-based moment closure enhances the reliability of trait-based aggregate models for natural populations and communities",
      year = "2018",
      journal = "Ecological Modelling",
      doi = "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2018.02.001",
      volume = "381",
      pages = "46--77",
      publisher = "Elsevier BV"
  }
  

• G. A. Maciel, R. M. Coutinho, and R. A. Kraenkel. Critical patch-size for two-sex populations. Mathematical Biosciences, 300:138–144, 2018. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mbs.2018.03.028.
  [abstract▼] [full text] [BibTeX▼]

  @article{maciel2018,
      author = "Maciel, G. A. and Coutinho, R. M. and Kraenkel, R. A.",
      title = "Critical patch-size for two-sex populations",
      year = "2018",
      journal = "Mathematical Biosciences",
      doi = "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mbs.2018.03.028",
      volume = "300",
      pages = "138--144",
      publisher = "Elsevier BV"
  }
  

2016

• R. M. Coutinho, T. Klauschies, and U. Gaedke. Bimodal trait distributions with large variances question the reliability of trait-based aggregate models. Theoretical Ecology, 9(4):389–408, 2016. doi:https://doi.org/10.1007/s12080-016-0297-9.
  [abstract▼] [full text] [BibTeX▼]

  @article{coutinho2016,
      author = "Coutinho, R. M. and Klauschies, T. and Gaedke, U.",
      title = "Bimodal trait distributions with large variances question the reliability of trait-based aggregate models",
      year = "2016",
      journal = "Theoretical Ecology",
      doi = "https://doi.org/10.1007/s12080-016-0297-9",
      volume = "9",
      number = "4",
      pages = "389--408",
      publisher = "Springer Science+Business Media"
  }
  

2015

• C. Johnson, R. M. Coutinho, E. Berlin, K. E. Dolphin, J. Heyer, B. Kim, A. Leung, J. L. Sabellon, and P. Amarasekare. Effects of temperature and resource variation on insect population dynamics: the bordered plant bug as a case study. Functional Ecology, 30(7):1122–1131, 2015. doi:https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2435.12583.
  [abstract▼] [full text] [BibTeX▼]

  Summary In species with complex life cycles, population dynamics result from a combination of intrinsic cycles arising from delays in the operation of negative density‐dependent processes (e.g. intraspecific competition) and extrinsic fluctuations arising from seasonal variation in the abiotic environment. Abiotic variation can affect species directly through their life‐history traits and indirectly by modulating the species’ interactions with resources or natural enemies. We investigate how the interplay between density‐dependent dynamics and abiotic variability affects population dynamics of the bordered plant bug ( Largus californicus ), a Hemipteran herbivore inhabiting the California coastal sage scrub community. Field data show a striking pattern in abundance: adults are extremely abundant or nearly absent during certain periods of the year, leading us to predict that seasonal forcing plays a role in driving observed dynamics. We develop a stage‐structured population model with variable developmental delays, in which fecundity is affected by both intraspecific competition and temporal variation in resource availability and all life‐history traits (reproduction, development, mortality) are temperature‐dependent. We parameterize the model with experimental data on temperature responses of life‐history and competitive traits and validate the model with independent field census data. We find that intraspecific competition is strongest at temperatures optimal for reproduction, which theory predicts leads to more complex population dynamics. Our model predicts that while temperature or resource variability interacts with development‐induced delays in self‐limitation to generate population fluctuations, it is the interplay between all three factors that drive the observed dynamics. Considering how multiple abiotic factors interact with density‐dependent processes is important both for understanding how species persist in variable environments and predicting species’ responses to perturbations in their typical environment.

  @article{johnson2015,
      author = "Johnson, C. and Coutinho, R. M. and Berlin, E. and Dolphin, K. E. and Heyer, J. and Kim, B. and Leung, A. and Sabellon, J. L. and Amarasekare, P.",
      title = "Effects of temperature and resource variation on insect population dynamics: the bordered plant bug as a case study",
      year = "2015",
      journal = "Functional Ecology",
      doi = "https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2435.12583",
      volume = "30",
      number = "7",
      pages = "1122--1131",
      publisher = "Wiley"
  }
  

• R. M. Coutinho, R. A. Kraenkel, and P. I. Prado. Catastrophic regime shift in water reservoirs and são paulo water supply crisis. PLoS ONE, 10(9):e0138278–e0138278, 2015. doi:https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0138278.
  [abstract▼] [full text] [BibTeX▼]

  The relation between rainfall and water accumulated in reservoirs comprises nonlinear feedbacks. Here we show that they may generate alternative equilibrium regimes, one of high water-volume, the other of low water-volume. Reservoirs can be seen as socio-environmental systems at risk of regime shifts, characteristic of tipping point transitions. We analyze data from stored water, rainfall, and water inflow and outflow in the main reservoir serving the metropolitan area of São Paulo, Brazil, by means of indicators of critical regime shifts, and find a strong signal of a transition. We furthermore build a mathematical model that gives a mechanistic view of the dynamics and demonstrates that alternative stable states are an expected property of water reservoirs. We also build a stochastic version of this model that fits well to the data. These results highlight the broader aspect that reservoir management must account for their intrinsic bistability, and should benefit from dynamical systems theory. Our case study illustrates the catastrophic consequences of failing to do so.

  @article{coutinho2015,
      author = "Coutinho, R. M. and Kraenkel, R. A. and Prado, P. I.",
      title = "Catastrophic Regime Shift in Water Reservoirs and São Paulo Water Supply Crisis",
      year = "2015",
      journal = "PLoS ONE",
      doi = "https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0138278",
      volume = "10",
      number = "9",
      pages = "e0138278--e0138278",
      publisher = "Public Library of Science"
  }
  

2014

• P. Amarasekare and R. M. Coutinho. Effects of temperature on intraspecific competition in ectotherms. The American Naturalist, 184(3):E50–E65, 2014. doi:https://doi.org/10.1086/677386.
  [abstract▼] [full text] [BibTeX▼]

  @article{amarasekare2014,
      author = "Amarasekare, P. and Coutinho, R. M.",
      title = "Effects of Temperature on Intraspecific Competition in Ectotherms",
      year = "2014",
      journal = "The American Naturalist",
      doi = "https://doi.org/10.1086/677386",
      volume = "184",
      number = "3",
      pages = "E50--E65",
      publisher = "University of Chicago Press"
  }
  

• F. M. Azevedo, R. M. Coutinho, and R. A. Kraenkel. Spatial dynamics of a population with stage-dependent diffusion. Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation, 22(1-3):605–610, 2014. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cnsns.2014.07.010.
  [abstract▼] [full text] [BibTeX▼]

  @article{azevedo2014,
      author = "Azevedo, F. M. and Coutinho, R. M. and Kraenkel, R. A.",
      title = "Spatial dynamics of a population with stage-dependent diffusion",
      year = "2014",
      journal = "Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation",
      doi = "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cnsns.2014.07.010",
      volume = "22",
      number = "1-3",
      pages = "605--610",
      publisher = "Elsevier BV"
  }
  

2013

• G. Z. Laporta, P. I. Prado, R. A. Kraenkel, R. M. Coutinho, and M. A. M. Sallum. Biodiversity can help prevent malaria outbreaks in tropical forests. PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 7(3):e2139–e2139, 2013. doi:https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0002139.
  [abstract▼] [full text] [BibTeX▼]

  Background Plasmodium vivax is a widely distributed, neglected parasite that can cause malaria and death in tropical areas. It is associated with an estimated 80–300 million cases of malaria worldwide. Brazilian tropical rain forests encompass host- and vector-rich communities, in which two hypothetical mechanisms could play a role in the dynamics of malaria transmission. The first mechanism is the dilution effect caused by presence of wild warm-blooded animals, which can act as dead-end hosts to Plasmodium parasites. The second is diffuse mosquito vector competition, in which vector and non-vector mosquito species compete for blood feeding upon a defensive host. Considering that the World Health Organization Malaria Eradication Research Agenda calls for novel strategies to eliminate malaria transmission locally, we used mathematical modeling to assess those two mechanisms in a pristine tropical rain forest, where the primary vector is present but malaria is absent. Methodology/Principal Findings The Ross–Macdonald model and a biodiversity-oriented model were parameterized using newly collected data and data from the literature. The basic reproduction number () estimated employing Ross–Macdonald model indicated that malaria cases occur in the study location. However, no malaria cases have been reported since 1980. In contrast, the biodiversity-oriented model corroborated the absence of malaria transmission. In addition, the diffuse competition mechanism was negatively correlated with the risk of malaria transmission, which suggests a protective effect provided by the forest ecosystem. There is a non-linear, unimodal correlation between the mechanism of dead-end transmission of parasites and the risk of malaria transmission, suggesting a protective effect only under certain circumstances (e.g., a high abundance of wild warm-blooded animals). Conclusions/Significance To achieve biological conservation and to eliminate Plasmodium parasites in human populations, the World Health Organization Malaria Eradication Research Agenda should take biodiversity issues into consideration.

  @article{laporta2013,
      author = "Laporta, G. Z. and Prado, P. I. and Kraenkel, R. A. and Coutinho, R. M. and Sallum, M. A. M.",
      title = "Biodiversity Can Help Prevent Malaria Outbreaks in Tropical Forests",
      year = "2013",
      journal = "PLoS neglected tropical diseases",
      doi = "https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0002139",
      volume = "7",
      number = "3",
      pages = "e2139--e2139",
      publisher = "Public Library of Science"
  }
  

• P. Amarasekare and R. M. Coutinho. The intrinsic growth rate as a predictor of population viability under climate warming. Journal of Animal Ecology, 82(6):1240–1253, 2013. doi:https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2656.12112.
  [abstract▼] [full text] [BibTeX▼]

  Summary Lately, there has been interest in using the intrinsic growth rate ( ) to predict the effects of climate warming on ectotherm population viability. However, because is calculated using the Euler‐Lotka equation, its reliability in predicting population persistence depends on whether ectotherm populations can achieve a stable age/stage distribution in thermally variable environments. Here, we investigate this issue using a mathematical framework that incorporates mechanistic descriptions of temperature effects on vital rates into a stage‐structured population model that realistically captures the temperature‐induced variability in developmental delays that characterize ectotherm life cycles. We find that populations experiencing seasonal temperature variation converge to a stage distribution whose intra‐annual pattern remains invariant across years. As a result, the mean annual per capita growth rate also remains constant between years. The key insight is the mechanism that allows populations converge to a stationary stage distribution. Temperature effects on the biochemical processes (e.g. enzyme kinetics, hormonal regulation) that underlie life‐history traits (reproduction, development and mortality) exhibit well‐defined thermodynamical properties (e.g. changes in entropy and enthalpy) that lead to predictable outcomes (e.g. reduction in reaction rates or hormonal action at temperature extremes). As a result, life‐history traits exhibit a systematic and predictable response to seasonal temperature variation. This in turn leads to temporally predictable temperature responses of the stage distribution and the per capita growth rate. When climate warming causes an increase in the mean annual temperature and/or the amplitude of seasonal fluctuations, the population model predicts the mean annual per capita growth rate to decline to zero within 100 years when warming is slow relative to the developmental period of the organism ( per year) and to become negative, causing population extinction, well before 100 years when warming is fast (e.g. per year). The Euler‐Lotka equation predicts a slower decrease in when warming is slow and a longer persistence time when warming is fast, with the deviation between the two metrics increasing with increasing developmental period. These results suggest that predictions of ectotherm population viability based on may be valid only for species with short developmental delays, and even then, only over short time‐scales and under slow warming regimes.

  @article{amarasekare2013,
      author = "Amarasekare, P. and Coutinho, R. M.",
      title = "The intrinsic growth rate as a predictor of population viability under climate warming",
      year = "2013",
      journal = "Journal of Animal Ecology",
      doi = "https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2656.12112",
      volume = "82",
      number = "6",
      pages = "1240--1253",
      publisher = "Wiley"
  }
  

• C. R. Fonseca, R. M. Coutinho, F. Azevedo, J. M. Berbert, G. Corso, and R. A. Kraenkel. Modeling habitat split: landscape and life history traits determine amphibian extinction thresholds. PLoS ONE, 8(6):e66806–e66806, 2013. doi:https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0066806.
  [abstract▼] [full text] [BibTeX▼]

  Habitat split is a major force behind the worldwide decline of amphibian populations, causing community change in richness and species composition. In fragmented landscapes, natural remnants, the terrestrial habitat of the adults, are frequently separated from streams, the aquatic habitat of the larvae. An important question is how this landscape configuration affects population levels and if it can drive species to extinction locally. Here, we put forward the first theoretical model on habitat split which is particularly concerned on how split distance – the distance between the two required habitats – affects population size and persistence in isolated fragments. Our diffusive model shows that habitat split alone is able to generate extinction thresholds. Fragments occurring between the aquatic habitat and a given critical split distance are expected to hold viable populations, while fragments located farther away are expected to be unoccupied. Species with higher reproductive success and higher diffusion rate of post-metamorphic youngs are expected to have farther critical split distances. Furthermore, the model indicates that negative effects of habitat split are poorly compensated by positive effects of fragment size. The habitat split model improves our understanding about spatially structured populations and has relevant implications for landscape design for conservation. It puts on a firm theoretical basis the relation between habitat split and the decline of amphibian populations.

  @article{fonseca2013,
      author = "Fonseca, C. R. and Coutinho, R. M. and Azevedo, F. and Berbert, J. M. and Corso, G. and Kraenkel, R. A.",
      title = "Modeling Habitat Split: Landscape and Life History Traits Determine Amphibian Extinction Thresholds",
      year = "2013",
      journal = "PLoS ONE",
      doi = "https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0066806",
      volume = "8",
      number = "6",
      pages = "e66806--e66806",
      publisher = "Public Library of Science"
  }
  

• T. C. Moretti, R. M. Coutinho, R. A. Moral, C. P. Ferreira, and W. A. C. Godoy. Quantitative and qualitative dynamics of exotic and native blowflies (diptera: calliphoridae) with migrations among municipalities. Community Ecology, 14(2):249–257, 2013. doi:https://doi.org/10.1556/comec.14.2013.2.15.
  [abstract▼] [full text] [BibTeX▼]

  @article{moretti2013,
      author = "Moretti, T. C. and Coutinho, R. M. and Moral, R. A. and Ferreira, C. P. and Godoy, W. A. C.",
      title = "Quantitative and qualitative dynamics of exotic and native blowflies (Diptera: Calliphoridae) with migrations among municipalities",
      year = "2013",
      journal = "Community Ecology",
      doi = "https://doi.org/10.1556/comec.14.2013.2.15",
      volume = "14",
      number = "2",
      pages = "249--257",
      publisher = "Springer Science+Business Media"
  }
  

2012

• M. F. Assaneo, R. M. Coutinho, Y. Lin, C. Mantilla, and F. Lutscher. Dynamics and coexistence in a system with intraguild mutualism. Ecological Complexity, 14:64–74, 2012. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecocom.2012.10.004.
  [abstract▼] [full text] [BibTeX▼]

  @article{assaneo2012,
      author = "Assaneo, M. F. and Coutinho, R. M. and Lin, Y. and Mantilla, C. and Lutscher, F.",
      title = "Dynamics and coexistence in a system with intraguild mutualism",
      year = "2012",
      journal = "Ecological Complexity",
      doi = "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecocom.2012.10.004",
      volume = "14",
      pages = "64--74",
      publisher = "Elsevier BV"
  }
  

• R. M. Coutinho, W. A. C. Godoy, and R. A. Kraenkel. Integrodifference model for blowfly invasion. Theoretical Ecology, 5(3):363–371, 2012. doi:https://doi.org/10.1007/s12080-012-0157-1.
  [abstract▼] [full text] [BibTeX▼]

  @article{coutinho2012,
      author = "Coutinho, R. M. and Godoy, W. A. C. and Kraenkel, R. A.",
      title = "Integrodifference model for blowfly invasion",
      year = "2012",
      journal = "Theoretical Ecology",
      doi = "https://doi.org/10.1007/s12080-012-0157-1",
      volume = "5",
      number = "3",
      pages = "363--371",
      publisher = "Springer Science+Business Media"
  }